2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
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The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various other state and local elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein and Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who is term limited. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020.
Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.
Background
A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.[2][3]
Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[3][4]
The Democratic nominee is Josh Stein, the current state attorney general. The Republican nominee is Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor.[5] The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson has become embroiled in numerous controversies since becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a consistent lead in polls, and most pundits consider him the favorite to win.[citation needed]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (2017–present)[5]
Eliminated in primary
- Chrelle Booker, Tryon city councilor (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[6]
- Gary Foxx, former Princeville police chief[7]
- Michael R. Morgan, former North Carolina Supreme Court justice (2016–2023)[8]
- Marcus Williams, attorney and perennial candidate[9]
Declined
- Sydney Batch, state senator from the 17th district (2021–present)[10] (endorsed Stein)[5]
- Jeff Jackson, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)[10] (endorsed Stein, running for Attorney General)[11]
- Natalie Murdock, state senator from the 20th district (2020–present)[10] (endorsed Stein)[5]
- Robert T. Reives II, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present)[10] (endorsed Stein)[12]
Endorsements
Josh Stein
- U.S. representatives
- G. K. Butterfield, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (2004–2022)[13]
- Eva Clayton, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (1992–2003)[13]
- Valerie Foushee, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district (2023–present)[14]
- Jeff Jackson, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)[11]
- Kathy Manning, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2021–present)[15]
- Wiley Nickel, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–present)[11]
- Deborah Ross, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)[16]
- Statewide officials
- Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina (2017–present)[17]
- Jim Hunt, former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001)[12]
- Burley Mitchell, former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (1995–1999)[18]
- State legislators
- Robert Reives, minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)[12]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[19]
- Labor unions
- North Carolina AFL-CIO[20]
- North Carolina Association of Educators[21]
- Organizations
- End Citizens United[22]
- NextGen America PAC[19]
- North Carolina League of Conservation Voters[23]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[24]
- Sierra Club[25]
- Newspapers
- The Charlotte Observer[26] (Democratic primary only)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Chrelle Booker | Gary Foxx | Michael Morgan | Josh Stein | Marcus Williams | Other | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 322 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 57% | 9% | – | – | ||||||||
| Change Research (D)[A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | – | – | 8% | 49% | – | 4%[b] | 39% | ||||||||
| East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 57% | 3% | – | 29% | ||||||||
| Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 31% | 2% | 4% | 51% | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 15–16, 2023 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 56% | 4% | – | 32% | ||||||||
| December 15, 2023 | Foxx joins the race | |||||||||||||||||
| December 14, 2023 | Williams joins the race | |||||||||||||||||
| November 2, 2023 | Booker joins the race | |||||||||||||||||
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 38% | – | 9% | 42% | ||||||||
| Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 308 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 33% | – | 10% | 46% | ||||||||
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Mandy Cohen | Jeff Jackson | Josh Stein | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 9% | 39% |
Results
Stein
- Stein—80–90%
- Stein—70–80%
- Stein—60–70%
- Stein—50–60%
- Stein—40–50%
- Stein—30–40%
Morgan
- Morgan—50–60%
- Morgan—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Stein | 479,026 | 69.60% | |
| Democratic | Michael R. Morgan | 98,627 | 14.33% | |
| Democratic | Chrelle Booker | 46,045 | 6.69% | |
| Democratic | Marcus Williams | 39,257 | 5.70% | |
| Democratic | Gary Foxx | 25,283 | 3.67% | |
| Total votes | 688,238 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Robinson, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–present)[28]
Eliminated in primary
- Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present)[29]
- Bill Graham, attorney and candidate for governor in 2008[30]
Withdrawn
- Jesse Thomas, retired healthcare executive (ran for Secretary of State)[31]
- Mark Walker, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2015–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)[32]
- Andy Wells, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[33]
Declined
- Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present)[10][34] (endorsed Graham)[35]
Endorsements
Dale Folwell
- Council of State officials
- James G. Martin, former Governor of North Carolina (1985–1993)[36]
- Newspapers
- The Charlotte Observer[26] (Republican primary only)
Bill Graham
- U.S. senators
- Thom Tillis, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2015–present)[35]
Mark Robinson
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[37]
- U.S. senators
- Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)[38]
- U.S. representatives
- Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 8th congressional district (2019–present)[28]
- State senators
- Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate (2011–present) from the 26th district (2001–present)[39]
- Danny Britt, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present)[28]
- State representatives
- Neal Jackson, state representative from the 78th district (2023–present)[39]
- Charlie Miller, state representative from the 19th district (2021–present)[28]
- Organizations
- Newspapers
- Rhino Times[42]
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Dale Folwell | Mark Walker | Jesse Thomas | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 12, 2023 | Wake County Republican Party | Bill LuMaye | YouTube | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Dale Folwell | Bill Graham | Mark Robinson | Jesse Thomas | Mark Walker | Andy Wells | Other | Undecided | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 394 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 17% | 33% | 51% | 9% | – | – | – | – | |||||||
| Capen Analytics | February 21, 2024 | 12,580 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 29% | 18% | 53% | – | – | – | – | – | |||||||
| Change Research (D)[A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 9% | 9% | 57% | – | – | – | 3%[c] | 22% | |||||||
| East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 7% | 13% | 53% | – | – | – | – | 27% | |||||||
| Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 4% | 9% | 34% | – | – | – | 10% | 42% | |||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 7% | 15% | 55% | – | – | – | – | 24% | |||||||
| December 16, 2023 | Wells withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||||
| East Carolina University | November 29 – Dec 1, 2023 | 445 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 7% | 8% | 34% | – | – | 3% | – | 49% | |||||||
| November 2, 2023 | Thomas withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||||
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 5% | 41% | 2% | – | 1% | 6% | 42% | |||||||
| October 25, 2023 | Walker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||||
| October 18, 2023 | Graham joins the race | |||||||||||||||||
| Cygnal[B] | October 8–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | – | 49% | 1% | 4% | 1% | – | 41% | |||||||
| Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | – | 34% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 44% | |||||||
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Dale Folwell | Pat McCrory | Mark Robinson | Thom Tillis | Steve Troxler | Mark Walker | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 4% | - | 44% | - | - | 7% | 7% | 38% |
| SurveyUSA[B] | April 25–29, 2023 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 4% | - | 43% | - | 9% | 8% | - | 37% |
| The Differentiators (R) | December 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | - | 60% | - | - | - | - | 34% |
| - | 21% | 60% | - | - | - | - | 19% | ||||
| - | - | 58% | - | - | 8% | - | 34% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | - | 54% | 20% | - | - | 5% | 17% |
Results
Robinson
- Robinson—80–90%
- Robinson—70–80%
- Robinson—60–70%
- Robinson—50–60%
- Robinson—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Robinson | 666,504 | 64.83% | |
| Republican | Dale Folwell | 196,955 | 19.16% | |
| Republican | Bill Graham | 164,572 | 16.01% | |
| Total votes | 1,028,031 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Mike Ross, treasurer of the North Carolina Libertarian Party[43]
Eliminated in primary
Results
Ross
- Ross—100%
- Ross—80–90%
- Ross—70–80%
- Ross—60–70%
- Ross—50–60%
Bray
- Bray—100%
- Bray—70–80%
- Bray—60–70%
- Bray—50–60%
Tie
- Tie—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Mike Ross | 2,910 | 59.45% | |
| Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 1,985 | 40.55% | |
| Total votes | 4,895 | 100.0% | ||
Green Party
Nominee
- Wayne Turner, co-chair of the North Carolina Green Party[7]
Constitution Party
Nominee
- Vinny Smith, treasurer of the North Carolina Constitution Party[45]
General election
Campaign
Republican Robinson and Democrat Stein will face each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial.[46] Robinson has also received criticism from some moderate Republicans, including U.S. Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.[47] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.[48]
Calls for Robinson to drop out
On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, transphobic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012.[49][50] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery.[51] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump-Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Trump or vice-presidential nominee JD Vance.[52] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Robinson's campaign subsequently cancelled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican State Senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside."[50] Republican North Carolina U.S. Senator Ted Budd said "the allegations are concerning but we don’t have any facts."[53] That afternoon, Robinson released a video saying that he would not drop out of the race.[54] Later that day, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.[55] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.[56]
Following CNN's report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Democratic, and Elections Daily moved the race to Solid Democratic.[57][58][59]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[59] | Likely D | September 20, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[60] | Tilt D | August 29, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[61] | Likely D | September 19, 2024 |
| RCP[62] | Lean D | August 28, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[63] | Safe D | September 19, 2024 |
| CNalysis[64] | Tilt D | August 17, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Josh Stein (D)
- U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[65]
- Statewide officials
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[66]
- Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland (2023–present)[67]
- State senators
- Jim Davis, former state senator from the 50th district (2011–2021) (Republican)[68]
- Richard Stevens, former state senator from the 17th district (2007–2012) (Republican)[68]
- State representatives
- Chuck McGrady, former state representative from the 117th district (2011–2020) (Republican)[68]
- Charles Neely, former state representative from the 61st district (1995–1999) (Republican)[68]
- Garland Pierce, state representative from the 48th district (2005–present)[69]
- Organizations
- Individuals
- Martin Luther King III, activist[72]
Mark Robinson (R)
- Organizations
Declined to endorse
- Statewide officials
- Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present) (Republican)[74]
- Pat McCrory, former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) (Republican)[75]
- U.S. senators
- Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (Republican)[75]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Josh Stein (D) | $32,910,029 | $17,279,731 | $15,918,586 |
| Mark Robinson (R) | $15,757,019 | $9,234,080 | $6,560,596 |
| Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections[76] | |||
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Josh Stein (D) | Mark Robinson (R) | Undecided [d] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[77] | August 26 – September 18, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 49.2% | 39.8% | 11.0% | Stein +9.4% |
| 270ToWin[78] | September 10–19, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 47.4% | 37.2% | 15.4% | Stein +10.2% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[79] | through September 18, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 49.0% | 38.0% | 13.0% | Stein +11.0% |
| Average | 48.5% | 38.3% | 13.1% | Stein +10.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Mark Robinson (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% | ||
| Emerson College[C] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 2%[e] | 10% | ||
| Morning Consult | September 11–18, 2024 | 1,314 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 37% | 1% | 12% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[D] | September 15–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.99% | 46% | 39% | 2%[f] | 13% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] | September 6–9, 2024 | 495 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 33% | 3%[g] | 23% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 42% | 1%[h] | 4% | ||
| 51% | 41% | 5%[i] | 4% | ||||||
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,369 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 2%[j] | 11% | ||
| SurveyUSA[F] | September 4–7, 2024 | 676 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 37% | – | 12% | ||
| Florida Atlantic University | September 5–6, 2024 | 692 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% | ||
| 619 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% | ||||
| Emerson College[G] | August 25–28, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 3%[k] | 10% | ||
| East Carolina University | August 25–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 1%[l] | 11% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] | August 25–28, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 44% | 40% | 4%[m] | 13% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[H] | August 26–27, 2024 | 612 (LV) | – | 47% | 37% | – | 16% | ||
| Fox News | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | 2%[n] | 1% | ||
| ActiVote | July 26 – August 26, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – | ||
| SurveyUSA/High Point University | August 19–21, 2024 | 1,053 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% | ||
| 941 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] | August 12–15, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 39% | 3%[o] | 13% | ||
| NYT/Siena College | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% | ||
| 655 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | – | 12% | ||||
| YouGov (D)[A] | August 5–9, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 36% | 6%[p] | 13% | ||
| Cygnal (R) | August 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 38% | 4%[q] | 15% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 31–August 3, 2024 | 714 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 3%[r] | 16% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 22–24, 2024 | 586 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 5%[s] | 23% | ||
| July 21, 2024 | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | July 19–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | – | 10% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] | July 16–18, 2024 | 461 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 36% | 4%[t] | 23% | ||
| Spry Strategies | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 43% | – | 18% | ||
| East Carolina University | May 31–June 3, 2024 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% | ||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[J] | May 29–June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% | ||
| Change Research (D)[A] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% | ||
| High Point University | May 2–9, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 34% | 39% | – | 27% | ||
| 1,002 (A) | ± 3.2% | 30% | 35% | – | 35% | ||||
| Cygnal (R)[K] | May 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 39% | 5%[u] | 17% | ||
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 5%[v] | 12% | ||
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[L] | April 25–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 37% | 6%[w] | 13% | ||
| Meredith College | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | – | 20% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[B] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 40% | – | 18% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 52% | 44% | 2%[x] | 3% | ||
| 48% | 41% | 7%[y] | 3% | ||||||
| High Point University | March 22–30, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 37% | 34% | – | 29% | ||
| Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% | ||
| SurveyUSA[F] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[B] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% | ||
| Change Research (D)[A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | – | 15% | ||
| East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 41% | – | 14% | ||
| Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 35% | – | 17% | ||
| East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 44% | – | 16% | ||
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 36% | – | 19% | ||
| Change Research (D)[A] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 42% | – | 20% | ||
| Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 41% | – | 21% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 18% | ||
| Change Research (D)[A] | May 5–8, 2023 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | – | 11% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 2–3, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% | ||
| Differentiator Data (R)[M] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% | ||
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[N] | May 12–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | – | 10% | ||
Hypothetical polling
- Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Dale Folwell (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Cygnal (R)[B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 34% | 27% |
- Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Bill Graham (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
- Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Mark Walker (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 2%[z] | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Stein | ||||
| Republican | Mark Robinson | ||||
| Libertarian | Mike Ross | ||||
| Green | Wayne Turner | ||||
| Constitution | Vinny Smith | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Ross (L) with 2%
- ^ Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
- ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
- ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 2%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
- ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Journal
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
- ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
- ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform
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North Carolina Primary Results (2024)
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Mark Robinson (R) for Governor
- Mike Ross (L) for Governor
- Vinny Smith (C) for Governor
- Josh Stein (D) for Governor
- Wayne Turner (G) for Governor
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