2024 Brandenburg state election
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All 88 seats of the Landtag of Brandenburg 45 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next election to the Landtag of Brandenburg is scheduled for 22 September 2024. It will be the third state election in the former East Germany of the month of September following Thuringia and Saxony.[1]
The outgoing government was a "Kenya coalition" consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and The Greens, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke of the SPD.
Background
The 2019 Brandenburg state election resulted in the formation of the Third Woidke cabinet, a Kenya coalition of the SPD, CDU, and Greens. The coalition holds 50 out of 88 seats.[2] The SPD became the strongest party with small losses, just ahead of the AfD, which gained many votes. The CDU lost significantly and fell from second to third place. Die Linke also lost significantly and ended up behind the Greens. Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters remained in state parliament with 5.0 percent. The FDP missed out with just 4.1 percent.
The SPD has governed Brandenburg continuously since the first post-reunification election in 1990. In the 2021 German federal election, the party won all 10 constituencies across the state.
This election received heightened attention after AfD won a state election for the first time in Thuringia and finished a close second to CDU in Saxony earlier in September. With polls showing a slight lead for AfD over SPD in the week prior to the election, Woidke received an unusual cross-party endorsement from Saxony Minister-President Michael Kretschmer of CDU, who stressed the importance that "the strongest party is a democratic party".[3]
Parties and lists
Party | 2019 result | Con. candidates | List candidates | Lead candidate | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 26.2% | 44 | 87 | Dietmar Woidke | |
Alternative for Germany (AfD) | 23.5% | 43 | 35 | Hans-Christoph Berndt | |
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | 15.6% | 44 | 45 | Jan Redmann | |
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) | 10.8% | 44 | 30 | Antje Töpfer | |
The Left (LINKE) | 10.7% | 43 | 35 | Sebastian Walter | |
Brandenburg Civic Movement/Free Voters (BVB/FW) | 5.0% | 44 | 39 | Péter Vida | |
Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 4.1% | 44 | 17 | Zyon Braun | |
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) | 2.6% | 4 | 13 | Christiane Müller-Schmolt | |
Plus Brandenburg (PLUS) | 1.3% | 12 | 17 | Thomas Bennühr | |
Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) | – | – | 30 | Robert Crumbach | |
Third Way (III. Weg) | – | 5 | 7 | Matthias Fischer | |
German Communist Party (DKP) | – | 4 | 4 | Fabian Große | |
German Rural Economy (DLW) | – | 6 | 10 | Benjamin Meise | |
Values Union (WU) | – | – | 13 | Anna-Sophia Werz | |
Other | – | 11 | – |
Opinion polls
Graphical summary
Party polling
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | AfD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | BVB/FW | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18–19 Sep 2024 | 1,118 | 27 | 28 | 14 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | – | 13 | 6 | 1 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 11–18 Sep 2024 | 982 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 15 | 4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
INSA | 9–16 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 25 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 3 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 10–12 Sep 2024 | 1,060 | 26 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | – | 14 | 5 | 3 |
Infratest dimap | 9–11 Sep 2024 | 1,513 | 26 | 27 | 16 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | – | 13 | 5 | 1 |
Wahlkreisprognose[better source needed] | 28 Aug – 5 Sep 2024 | 1,420 | 20.5 | 30 | 15 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 14.5 | 5.5 | 9.5 |
Infratest dimap | 3–4 Sep 2024 | 1,207 | 23 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 3 | – | 15 | 5 | 4 |
INSA | 29 Jul–6 Aug 2024 | 1,000 | 20 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 4 |
INSA | 8–15 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 5 |
Infratest dimap | 4–9 Jul 2024 | 1,153 | 19 | 23 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 4 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 15–23 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 16 | 29 | 16.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 17 | 6 | 12.5 |
European Parliament election | 9 Jun 2024 | – | 13.1 | 27.5 | 18.4 | 6.0 | 4.4 | – | 3.2 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 9.1 |
INSA | 13–21 May 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6 |
Infratest dimap | 4–8 Apr 2024 | 1,161 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – | 10 | 7 | 4 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Mar – 7 Apr 2024 | 1,100 | 21 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 6 |
INSA | 14–22 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 6 |
INSA | 8–15 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3[a] | 10 |
Forsa | 6–10 Jan 2024 | 1,007 | 22 | 32 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
INSA | 13–22 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 20 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 7 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Oct–1 Nov 2023 | 1,017 | 27 | 32 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 6 | 2.5 | – | 5.5 | 5 |
21.5 | 22 | 12 | 4.5 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 7 | 0.5 | |||
Infratest dimap | 8–11 Sep 2023 | 1,160 | 20 | 32 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 12 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 10–14 Aug 2023 | 1,003 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 | – | 6 | 5 |
22 | 22 | 13 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 2 | 19.5 | 4.5 | Tie | |||
INSA | 26 Jun–3 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 21 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | – | 6 | 7 |
IFM | 22 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | – | 2 | Tie |
Infratest dimap | 19–24 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | – | 6 | Tie |
INSA | 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 4 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 Mar 2023 | 978 | 23.5 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 6.5 | 3 | – | 7 | 2.5 |
pmg – policy matters | 28 Nov–15 Dec 2022 | 1,011 | 27 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 | – | 6 | 4 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 6–18 Nov 2022 | 1,922 | 26 | 26 | 13.5 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 3.5 | – | 6 | Tie |
INSA | 4–10 Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 3 |
Infratest dimap | 22–26 Sep 2022 | 1,165 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | Tie |
Wahlkreisprognose | 4–11 Sep 2022 | 1,100 | 26.5 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 5 | – | 6.5 | 1.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 9–17 May 2022 | 1,001 | 30 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 4.5 | – | 5.5 | 11 |
Infratest dimap | 21–24 Apr 2022 | 1,182 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 6 | – | 3 | 11 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 21–29 Mar 2022 | 1,002 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 5 | – | 6 | 9 |
Forsa | 9–17 Dec 2021 | 1,008 | 28 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | – | 5 | 11 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 8–16 Dec 2021 | 1,040 | 34 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | – | 6 | 15 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 7–14 Oct 2021 | 980 | 32 | 19.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 9.5 | 7 | – | 6.5 | 12.5 |
2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 29.5 | 18.1 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | – | 9.3 | – | 10.3 | 11.4 |
Infratest dimap | 25–30 Aug 2021 | 1,157 | 34 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | – | 5 | 17 |
Infratest dimap | 12–15 May 2021 | 1,183 | 23 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 7 | – | 5 | 5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 May 2021 | – | 22 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 5 | – | 5 | 3 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 12–19 Mar 2021 | – | 24 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 10.5 | 9 | 5 | – | 5.5 | 6 |
Forsa | 10–15 Dec 2020 | 1,001 | 23 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 |
Infratest dimap | 12–17 Nov 2020 | 1,002 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 5 | – | 4 | 7 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep–7 Oct 2020 | 1,089 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 2 | – | 5.5 | 4 |
INSA | 29 Sep–6 Oct 2020 | 1,043 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 4 | – | 4 | 1 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 19–27 Aug 2020 | – | 26 | 16.5 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | – | 5.5 | 7 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 12–19 Jun 2020 | – | 28 | 16 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | – | 4 | 6 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 4–11 May 2020 | – | 29.5 | 20 | 23 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 4 | – | 4.5 | 6.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–8 Apr 2020 | – | 28 | 21 | 20.5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – | 5.5 | 7 |
Infratest dimap | 31 Mar–4 Apr 2020 | 1,000 | 27 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 |
Forsa | 20–25 Feb 2020 | 1,001 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | 4 |
Infratest dimap | 11–16 Nov 2019 | 1,000 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 5 | – | 5 | 1 |
2019 state election | 1 Sep 2019 | – | 26.2 | 23.5 | 15.6 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 4.1 | – | 4.1 | 2.7 |
References
- ^ "A German far-right party wins its first state election". NPR. September 1, 2024.
- ^ "Who governs? These coalitions are likely in Saxony and Brandenburg". Handelsblatt (in German). 1 September 2019.
- ^ "Brandenburg: CDU-Regierungschef Kretschmer unterstützt Ministerpräsident Woidke". tagesschau.de (in German).
See also
- v
- t
- e